York Town News
Hurricane Season 2006: hoping for the best, and planning for the worst
By Jennifer L. Saunders
As weather experts are warning of the possibility of a repeat of the Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1944, which struck the Maine coast as a Category 2 storm, local officials are striving to be prepared and are urging residents to do the same. The path of the storm is shown in this image from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association.
Courtesy of NOAA
While hurricane season lasts from June through November, the peak of the season is beginning right now, in mid-August, and continues through October.
Just last week, York Police Chief Douglas Bracy, Geographical Information Systems (GIS) Manager Brett Horr and Finance Director Jennie McCann were in California taking part in the ESRI International Users Conference on just such planning in an effort to, within the constraints of budgets and resources, help York to be as prepared as possible in the event that a hurricane makes landfall within the town's borders.
A report issued last week from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association, included on the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center, indicates there is a "high likelihood" that the current hurricane season will be more active than usual for the Atlantic Ocean.
That likelihood is estimated at 75 percent, with a 20 percent change of a normal season and only a five percent chance of a below-normal season for hurricane activity.
Horr explained that last week's conference had a special focus on using the tools of GIS for emergency management and to assist with and improve emergency preparedness.
According to a consensus of scientists at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, National Hurricane Center and Hurricane Research Division, 2006 is forecast to be the 10th above-normal season in the past dozen years.
"This updated outlook calls for a seasonal total of 12 to 15 named storms, with seven to nine becoming hurricanes, and three to four becoming major hurricanes," the report states.
A major hurricane is classified as Category 3 or higher storm.
"These totals include the three tropical storms (Alberto, Beryl, and Chris) that have already occurred. Therefore, for the remainder of the season, we expect an additional nine to 12 named storms, seven to nine hurricanes, and three to four major hurricanes," the report continues.
NOAA cautions that it is not possible to predict the number or intensity of storms that will make landfall, or where those storms might hit.
"Therefore, residents and government agencies of coastal and near-coastal regions should always maintain hurricane preparedness efforts regardless of the overall seasonal outlook," the NOAA report advises.
During an interview as hurricane season officially got underway, Town Manager Rob Yandow explained that is exactly what the town is striving to do.
"It is on the radar given the potential for that to happen," Yandow said.
The town has systems in place, including its emergency operations plans, to assist residents and to assess infrastructure needs should such an event become a reality.
"What concerns me with the potential for a hurricane … is our evacuation, particularly with that temporary bridge on the Passaconaway Bridge," Yandow said.
Evacuation routes are one issue both Bracy and Horr are looking at as well.
"Everybody has evacuation centers and plans, but it more or less handles what's in your town, not what's coming from another town," Bracy said of a major event like a hurricane, explaining the need for local, state and federal agencies to work together. "We'll reach out to the agencies that re out there, whether it's the federal government, the state or the county."
Bracy said he is working with Horr to find more improved computer programs to provide better information for the planning process.
This is a lesson both Bracy and Horr cited as one learned during the May flood.
"We found that GIS is a recording and reporting tool. Everything that happened as far as damage is concerned has a geographic component to it," Horr said.
When the Federal Emergency Management Agency arrived in York in the wake of the May storm, the town had photographs and maps in hand detailing the damage caused during the rains and in the flooding that continued when the rains subsided.
"That was part of the advantage of taking some of the FEMA training ahead of time," Horr said, adding he has been learning ways to use GIS to model certain natural disasters and to anticipate damage. "You start to realize what you can do ahead of time to make the response and the reporting portion also run smoothly."
The information Horr has been compiling for Bracy as the town's emergency management director include sites for potential shelters, evacuation routes and the types of equipment that might be needed for the clean-up of debris should a hurricane strike. GIS also provides information on the best coastal construction methods for new construction and rebuilding in areas where major ocean storms could hit.
For example, Horr said, "the largest percentage of 'missile debris' during a hurricane are shingles." In a town where shingle-style construction is so popular, that fact urges information on the best practices for proper construction.
GIS software will also model historic events against current infrastructure, Horr explained.
For example, experts have expressed concern that this season might see a repeat of the "no-name" hurricane of 1938, which did not directly hit York, or the Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1944, which struck Maine as a Category 2 hurricane.
Those storms caused hundreds of millions of dollars in damage between Maine and New York, and claimed about 1,000 lives, both of civilians and World War II sailors.
The software, Horr explained, helps answer the question, "What's the potential scenario if that were to happen today?"
But, he said, current limitations only measure one single event at a time - such as wind damage, but not storm surge. At a training scheduled for next month, Horr will be looking at software that allows more variables to be included in the model.
"We certainly don't have all the answers," Horr said, explaining the town staff is endeavoring to apply the lessons learned during the May storms. "Within our resources we're attempting to be as prepared as possible."
Bracy said all local residents should have plans in place, just in case.
"We're seeing more tropical effects. The East Coast is ripe for either a tropical storm or a hurricane," Bracy said. "Everybody should have a family plan. It all starts with the individual being prepared."
For additional information, visit the National Hurricane Center's web site at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov or the National Weather Service at http://www.weather.gov/caribou and Gray at http://www.weather.gov/gray or www.ready.gov.
