"POLITICS AND OTHER MISTAKES"
Scary guy
By Al Diamon
Three words that cause Maine Republicans to become panic-stricken and lose control of their bodily functions: Congressman Ethan Strimling.Oddly enough, the same three words have a similar effect on state Democratic leaders. That Strimling, he's a uniter, not a divider.
Strimling is a three-term Democratic state senator who represents the Portland peninsula, perhaps the most liberal district in the state. But for a guy who regularly wins elections by Olympia Snowe-type margins, he's got a lot of enemies. And not all of them are right-wing fanatics.
In fact, some crazed conservatives would be delighted to see Strimling's name on the ballot in 2008 as the Dems' nominee for the U.S. House from Maine's First District. They think his leftist platform (universal health care, a leaner military, fatter welfare checks) would guarantee victory for the GOP. Crazed conservatives tend to forget that this is the same district that's regularly elected ardent Dem libs such as Tom Andrews and Tom Allen to Congress, in races in which Republican candidates were about as competitive as the Baghdad Police Department.
There's nothing to indicate Strimling couldn't continue southern Maine's tradition of listing to port by assembling a coalition of yuppies (he looks like one), Greens (he votes like one), peaceniks (he is one), antigun crusaders (he shoots as straight as one) and gays (sorry, boys, he's married).
Except that would make a lot of Democratic big shots (and more than a few small shots) very unhappy. They don't like Strimling for reasons that range from the petty (he's too good-looking, he likes seeing his name in print and his face on TV too much) to the personal (he's accused of stabbing a few of his fellow Dems, including party chair Ben Dudley, in the back) to the professional (he's not a team player, as witness his recent vocal opposition to a sales tax break for a proposed Cabela's sporting goods store in Scarborough - which isn't in his district - undermining Dem legislators who represent the area, causing many of his aggrieved colleagues to hint his interference had something to do with his close ties to top management at L.L. Bean, a Cabela's competitor).
But before we get hung up on Strimling's alleged shortcomings, let's check out the political landscape. Democrat Allen currently holds the First District seat and can probably keep it as long as he likes. Allen did tell reporters he was considering a 2008 run for the U.S. Senate against GOP incumbent Susan Collins. But Allen knows he'd be an underdog in that race, and a lot of Washington analysts think he'll enjoy his new status as an influential member of the Democratic majority in Congress so much, he won't want to move.
Even an ego the size of Strimling's isn't big enough to challenge a popular incumbent from his own party. But that hasn't stopped Strimling from preparing for a run, just in case Allen bows out. According to the West End News (motto: Maine's Only Biweekly Newspaper That Strictly Enforces The Rule Requiring Layout People And Photographers To Be Blindfolded While Working), Strimling convened a meeting with potential congressional campaign committee members shortly after the November election.
"It's up and running," Sive Neilan, chair of the Portland Democratic City Committee, told the paper. "He's going to be the one to beat."
Well, maybe. Strimling's viability in a Democratic primary depends on whether his enemies in the party can join together to stop his nomination. If he faces a single strong opponent, say ex-House Speaker John Richardson of Brunswick, the odds are he'd lose.
"It's a question of if the mainstream unites," said a political operative with experience in Maine congressional races. "If there are four or five candidates in the primary, Strimling wins."
What's less clear is who else might run. Richardson is said to be in line to become the next commissioner of the Department of Economic and Community Development, hardly the best platform for a congressional bid. He's also made noises indicating he plans to run for governor in four years. Knowing he'd only keep the Washington job for one term might make him less attractive to Dem voters.
Others Democrats in the mix include ex-state Sen. Mike Brennan of Portland and current state Sen. Bill Diamond of Windham. Brennan is nobody's idea of a great campaigner (he nearly lost what should have been an easy special election in 2002), but he could cut into Strimling's base among the Portland liberal elite. Diamond might force Strimling to split the good-hair vote.
So far, no Republican names have surfaced as 2008 contenders for the congressional seat, possibly because most potential GOP candidates believe Allen will stay put. Or maybe Republicans prefer starting so late they'll have no chance of winning, a strategy that's cost them every race in the First District, save one, over the last 20 years.
Now, that's scary.
Don't be afraid to use my new e-mail address: aldiamon@herniahill.net.
